 |
By: Michael Cohen
One thing that most people do wrong is play consistently. In other words,
you may play some hands like AQ different preflop or postflop sometimes, but
most decent players will still be able to identify you as a certain type of
player- tight-aggressive, very-tight aggressive, etc.
A way to help your earnings is to simply switch up your play sometimes. This
way, when they're expecting that you're going to bluff, you bluff rarely so
they'll call your value bets more. Likewise, if your bets have been mainly
for value, you start to bluff at the pot a lot. People generally won't catch
on if you do this discretely, and it can add more mystery to your play.
This strategy is obviously much more effective at no-limit becasue it is
much easier to bluff at no-limit games. However, it can be used at limit as
well. Generally, the game must be 5 or less people (preferably 4 people total.)
With stakes large enough, you can effectively bluff at the flop or turn if
you have been playing it tight, and you will receive more callers for big
bets if you bluffed earlier in the session.
For those of you who are mathematically inclined, I'll use some game theory
to prove my assertions. Suppose you are playing a soccer match and you have
a penalty kick. You predict that if you kick left, you will have an 80%
chance of scoring if the goalie does not expect left, and you have a 60% of
scoring if you kick to the right and the goalie does not expect right.
However, if the goalie blocks left and you kick left, you only have a 45%
chance of scoring, and if the goalie blocks to the right, you will only
score 35% of the time. Here's a matrix to quickly summarize:
| Block |
Left |
Right |
| Shoot Left: |
45 |
80 |
| Shoot Right: |
60 |
35 |
As you can see, even though shooting left may be what you are best at, it is
in your interest to shoot right from time to time because if the goalie always
knows you will shoot left, you will score less than if you shot to the right
sometimes.
Now, instead of percent chance of scoring, think of the numbers as hourly
profit. Left means playing your standard tight-aggressive game and the right
means playing a more loose game. Bad players may not 'block' at all or will
always block the wrong way, so you can keep on playing your standard
tight-aggressive game and earn 80 an hour. However, against good players,
they'll quickly realize what you are doing and defend against it. Your
profit drops down to 45 an hour.
Now, suppose you play tight-aggressive (left) 70% of the time and looser
(right) 30% of the time. If they continue to just play against you as if you
were a tight-aggressive all the time, you will earn 49.5 an hour (.7 X 45 +
.3 X 60).
Now, if your opponents caught on to what you were doing and played you as a
tight-aggressive 80% of the time and a looser player 20% of the time, your
profit would actually increase AS LONG AS THEY DON'T KNOW EXACTLY WHEN YOU
WERE PLAYING WHICH WAY. Your profit would be (.7)(.3) X 45 + (.3)(.7) X 80 +
(.8)(.3) X 60 + (.2)(.3) X 35 =52.9
So, in order to defend against changing pace, you need to know when they are
changing pace. Obviously, if they treated you as a tight-aggressive 70% of
the time and all the time they treated you as a tight aggressive you were
one, your profit would drop. However, as shown before, predicting a change
of pace when there is none will actually help the person who is changing
pace, so people generally will generally treat you as the same even when you
switch your style!
Thus, I recommend you change your pace some, but randomize it so they can't
catch on and correctly predict when you vary your style.
If you want to learn more, visit our EmpirePoker School
Back to top
|
|
